Analyzing Inductive Arguments
Answer all questions completely. You should answer the questions in essay form, providing an ARGUMENT for why your “strong” poll should be considered strong, and why your “weak” poll should be considered weak. Submit your responses in the space provided below. Do not attach any files to your submission.
To complete this assignment, you need to have read chapter 10. The goal of this assignment is for the student to demonstrate an ability to distinguish a strong inductive argument from a weak inductive argument.
ASSIGNMENT: Find two public opinion polls from 2012 (it is an election year, so MANY polls are available!!!), one of which offers weak support for its conclusion, the other of which offers strong support for its conclusion. Answer the following questions about each of the polls:
What is the property in question (what question is asked of the sample population)?
What is the sample size, and is the sample size large enough to avoid hastiness?
From where was the sample population taken (what types of people are included in the sample)?
What was the methodology in selecting the sample? Was it randomly selected? If so, explain the precise method of random selection (Do not simply say “telephone survey.” Do not simply say “randomly selected telephone survey. Be specific! Do not say “the survey did not say how the sample was selected.” Choose a survey from a polling organization that does reveal the method of selecting the sample, or do research on the survey or polling organization by going to their web site. You must have a precise and detailed answer to this question! See the sample assignment submission PDF for an example of how this question can be answered relatively successfully.) Or was the sample selected in some other way, i.e. self-selection?
Were there any opportunities for bias (as defined in chapter 10) to creep into the sample? Explain.
What is the target population?
On a scale of 1 to 10 (1 being very weak, 10 being very strong), what numerical value would you assign to the poll? Briefly explain your answer.