Business Statistics

  • Use data set 1 in attached file
  • Do Part 3 + 4
  • Times New Romans/ Double Space/ size 12
  • Limit: 800 words for part 3 and 200 words for part 4

Individual (by each team member)

  • Use data set 1 of the countries A and B for the years 1980 – 2011
  • Apply the following time trend models for each country (Country A / Country B)
    • Linear trend model (LIN)
    • Quadratic trend model (QUA)
    • Exponential trend model (EXP)
  • Based on the results found in 2):
    • Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country A?
    • Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country B?

For each trend model (LIN / QUA / EXP)

  • Provide the regression output in the report
  • Provide the formula of the trend model
  • Predict the old age dependency ratio for the years
    • 201220132014and 2015
  • Calculated the errors for the years
    • 201220132014and 2015
  • Calculated the MAD and SSE

Explain your answers.

 

 

Part 4: Team Time Series conclusion:

In part 3, your team has looked at several trend models to predict the old age dependency ratio over time. In this part your team will write a conclusion based on your findings in part 3.

Task: Write a conclusion to predict the old age dependency ratio over time

  • Provide a line chart of old age dependency ratio over time from 1980 – 2015, including the countries of allthe team members.
  • Comment on the line chart. Are all the countries following the same trend?
  • Compare the trend models of the countries analyzed by each team member in part 3.
    • Which countries are following the same trend model?
    • Which trend model does your team consider to be the best old age dependency ratio predictor? Explain your answer.

Write your conclusion in an unbiased manner to a non-technical audience.

 

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